Interest Rate Outlook Index
Interest Rate Outlook Index
Current Phase
Balancing Interest Rate
Index Value: 51.71
Summary
This phase reflects a period where RBI adjusts interest rates with the objective of managing inflation, and supporting sustainable growth. This could be either through adjusting policy repo rate or using various liquidity management tools. This balancing phase often signals a transition in the economic cycle for instance, moving from a period of strong recovery to a temporary slowdown phase or a more stable growth.
Index Value (LHS)
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Current Phase
Balancing Interest Rate
Index Value: 51.71
Summary
This phase reflects a period where RBI adjusts interest rates with the objective of managing inflation, and supporting sustainable growth. This could be either through adjusting policy repo rate or using various liquidity management tools. This balancing phase often signals a transition in the economic cycle for instance, moving from a period of strong recovery to a temporary slowdown phase or a more stable growth.
Interest Rate Outlook Index
Showing: Index Value • Range: 10 Years
Index Value (LHS)
Overview
Recent Updates
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the repo rate at 5.25% in its April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, while retaining a neutral policy stance amid rising geopolitical and inflation risks.
- The MPC showed RBI's effort to balance growth and inflation, with FY27 GDP projected at 6.9% and CPI inflation at 4.6%, while signalling that external risks remain the biggest challenge ahead.
- India’s retail inflation (CPI) rose marginally to 3.48% YoY in April 2026 from 3.40% in March, remaining below the RBI’s medium-term target of 4%. Food inflation increased to 4.20%, driven by rising vegetable and protein prices, while core inflation remained relatively contained.
- Earlier expectations of rate cuts in 2026 have largely faded. We now expect a 60% probability of no rate cut through 2026–27. This marks a clear transition from an easing cycle to a “wait-and-watch” phase.
Near-term Outlook
- The Interest Rate Outlook Index now indicates a prolonged pause in policy rates, with 1 Finance Research suggesting that earlier expectations of rate cuts in 2026 have largely faded, as inflation risks re-emerge and global uncertainties persist.
- Three overlapping risks — a below-normal 2026 southwest monsoon (92% of LPA), El Niño emergence, and elevated energy and commodity import prices — could push CFPI and headline CPI into the upper half of the 2–6% band by Q2 FY27.
- Risks from global trade tensions, currency volatility, and external shocks remain, causing the RBI to remain cautious. However, improved inflation management and steady growth create a supportive environment for gradual monetary easing in the medium term.
Description
What is the Interest Rate Outlook Index?
The Interest Rate Outlook Index analyses interest rate fluctuations to understand economic phases and monetary policy stance, using indicators such as inflation, liquidity, credit demand, government borrowings, and investment scenarios. The index is useful for analysing interest rates’ impact on various sectors of the economy and changing borrowing costs
What are its components?
The Interest Rate Outlook Index covers diverse economic parameters, covering both demand and supply side components. We have assigned appropriate weights to each of these indicators, considering their individual impact in reflecting the interest rate outlook.
The High Frequency Indicators (HFIs) include:
AAA Rated Bonds - Yield Spread (1-Year & 10-Year)
AAA Rated Bonds - Yield Spread (1-Year & 3-Year)
AAA Rated Bonds - Yield Spread (1-Year & 5-Year)
AA Rated Bonds - Yield Spread (1-Year & 10-Year)
AA Rated Bonds - Yield Spread (1-Year & 3-Year)
AA Rated Bonds - Yield Spread (1-Year & 5-Year)
Central Government Fiscal Deficit
Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation - Core
Usability
How to use Interest Rate Outlook Index for better financial decision-making?
The Interest Rate Outlook Index serves as a pivotal tool in financial planning, offering a comprehensive view of interest rate movements and their broader implications. This index evaluates various factors including liquidity, credit demand, government borrowings, and investment scenarios. Interest Rate Outlook Index is indispensable in crafting strategies that are both responsive and anticipatory to economic shifts.
Insights
Fixed-Income Investment Decisions: Changes in interest rates directly impact bond markets. Understanding upcoming trends empowers you to get the right mix of fixed-income instruments – such as corporate bonds or government securities – to align with expected rate changes.
Equity Investment Strategy: Interest rate trends influence corporate earnings and, consequently, stock market performance. This also aids in evaluating whether to invest in growth stocks, which generally benefit from low interest rates, or value stocks, which are more attractive in high-interest periods.
Loan and Mortgage Decisions: The Interest Rate Outlook Index is essential for choosing between fixed or variable rate loans and making informed foreclosure decisions, leading to potential cost savings in liability planning.
Debt Refinancing: Insights from the Interest Rate Outlook Index enables you to optimally time debt refinancing, ensuring you to benefit from the most favourable interest rate environments.
Savings and Emergency Funds: Understanding the direction of interest rates helps in choosing the best saving instruments, balancing between liquidity and yield.
Expense Management: Anticipating changes in interest rates is crucial for managing large expenses, such as education or significant purchases, to align them with periods of favourable rates.
Annuity and Pension Fund Decisions: The Interest Rate Outlook Index aids in making informed decisions regarding annuities and pension funds, which are affected by interest rate changes, ensuring a stable retirement income adjusted for these fluctuations.
Historical Events
Apr
2022
RBI Rate Hikes
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) initiated an aggressive monetary tightening cycle between Apr-22 and Dec-22 to combat post-pandemic inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the repo rate by 225 basis points (bps) across five meetings between Apr-22 and Dec-22, marking the steepest annual hike since 2018.
Mar
2020
COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown
The COVID-19 pandemic, a global health crisis caused by the novel coronavirus, began affecting India significantly from March 2020. Characterised by widespread infections, lockdowns, and public health emergencies, the pandemic has had profound implications on the Indian economy and society. According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), COVID-19 caused 5,33,318 deaths as of December 19, 2023.
Jul
2017
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Implementation of GST
On July 1, 2017, India underwent a major tax reform with the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), marking a significant milestone in the country's taxation history. GST was introduced as a comprehensive indirect tax on the manufacture, sale, and consumption of goods and services throughout India, replacing multiple cascading taxes levied by the central and state governments.
Nov
2016
Demonetisation
Demonetisation, announced on November 8, 2016, was a significant decision by the Indian government to withdraw the legal tender character of the Specified Bank Notes (SBNs), involving the high-value currency notes (₹ 500 and ₹ 1,000) from circulation. It represented a drastic step by the government in its fight to curb black money, counterfeit currency and corruption.
Apr
2014
New Monetary Policy Framework
In April 2014, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) initiated a significant shift in its monetary policy approach, focusing more intently on inflation management. This shift was part of a broader strategy to stabilise the Indian economy by controlling high inflation rates. With the signing of the new Monetary Policy Framework Agreement (MPFA) between the Government of India and the RBI on Feb 20, 2015, Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) was formally adopted in India. The Central Government has notified 4% CPI inflation as the target for the period from August 5, 2016 to March 31, 2021 with the upper tolerance limit of 6% and the lower tolerance limit of 2%. For the period April 1, 2021 to March 31, 2026 too, the inflation target has been kept at the same level as was for the previous 5 years.