South-west Monsoon Rainfall: Deviation from Normal

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Source: CMIE Economic Outlook, 1 Finance Research

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What does the Deviation from Normal Rainfall data represent?

This data represents the progress in rainfall on a weekly cumulative basis and the deviation from normal rainfall, during the South-west Monsoon season (June to September) in India.
'Normal' rainfall is defined as the long-term average of rainfall during these months, typically calculated over a 30-50 year period. The data expressed in percentage measures the difference between the actual rainfall received and the normal rainfall for the period, providing a clear indication of whether the monsoon season has brought more or less rainfall than usual.
LPA is the average rainfall received over a long-term period, typically over 50 years. LPA serves as a baseline to assess the current year's rainfall. It helps in understanding whether the rainfall is above, below, or at par with the average expectations.

The South-west Monsoon is crucial for agriculture in India, as a significant portion of annual rainfall and agricultural activities are concentrated in this period.
Agriculture being a significant part of the economy, variations in rainfall can have broader economic implications, affecting commodity prices, supply chains, and rural income.
Rainfall significantly influences agricultural productivity. Adequate rainfall (around 100% of LPA) is crucial for good crop yields, especially in rain-fed areas. Conversely, significantly lower percentages can indicate drought conditions, adversely affecting crops.
The data helps in assessing whether the rainfall distribution aligns with critical stages of crop growth.
Deviations from the normal can prompt government interventions such as drought relief measures, crop insurance schemes, and changes in agricultural policies.
Long-term trends in this data can also provide insights into climate change impacts on regional weather patterns, crucial for future agricultural planning.

The data is expressed in percentage terms. For instance, if the LPA is 1000 mm and the actual rainfall is 900 mm, the data might show this as 90% of LPA. A value of 100% indicates average rainfall, above 100% signifies above-average rainfall, and below 100% indicates below-average rainfall.
Positive deviation (above-normal rainfall) can enhance crop production, but excessive rainfall might lead to flooding and damage to crops. Negative deviation (below-normal rainfall) can lead to drought, adversely affecting crops and reducing yields.
The impact of rainfall data should be interpreted in the context of the specific crops grown in the area, seasonal and regional variations, and its distribution throughout the year.
Rainfall data might influence agricultural output, commodity prices,inflation, food security, and government policies such as drought relief measures or subsidies.