Consumer Price Index in India: Inflation Trends

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Source: CMIE Economic Outlook, 1 Finance Research

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What does the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Inflation represent?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation measures the average change in the prices paid by urban and rural consumers for a basket of goods and services over a period.
CPI basket represents a wide array of items, including food, clothing, housing, fuel, transportation fares, charges for doctors and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.
CPI is a key indicator of inflation in the economy, reflecting the cost of living and purchasing power of consumers.

CPI inflation is closely watched by policymakers, economists, and investors as it affects various aspects of the economy.
CPI inflation is a primary indicator of the economic health of a country. Changes in CPI inflation can impact consumer demand and spending patterns. High inflation may lead to reduced consumer spending on non-essential goods and services. As CPI increases, the cost of buying the basket of goods and services increases, indicating that consumers need to spend more to maintain their standard of living.
Central banks use CPI data to formulate monetary policy, particularly in setting interest rates. High inflation often leads to higher interest rates, while low inflation can lead to lower rates.
Inflation affects real income and wages. Persistent inflation without corresponding wage growth can erode purchasing power.
Inflation impacts equity markets as it influences corporate earnings, consumer spending, and the cost of borrowing. Moderate inflation is generally favourable for equities, while high inflation can dampen market optimism.

Inflation is measured by the Year-on-Year (YoY) or Month-on-Month (MoM) percentage change in the level of the index. An increase in the index (over the year or month) indicates inflation (rising prices), while a decrease in the index suggests deflation (falling prices). A slowdown in the inflation rate suggests disinflation.
Moderate inflation suggests a growing economy, while high inflation can indicate an overheated economy, and deflation can signal economic stagnation.
Since 2016, RBI has adopted a flexible inflation targeting monetary policy framework which notifies 4% CPI inflation as the target, with the upper tolerance limit of 6% and the lower tolerance limit of 2%. Although there are no such targets for inflation in miscellaneous items, when interpreting CPI inflation in the miscellaneous category, one should consider how this category's inflation rate aligns with the RBI's overall inflation target.
Higher and lower inflation influences the central bank's monetary policy stance and leads to interest rate adjustments to bring the inflation within its set targets.
Higher inflation lowers the consumer purchasing power, spoils investor confidence in the equity markets, expecting lower earnings and investment returns.