Share of Actual Rainfall as % of Long Period Average (LPA)

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Source: CMIE Economic Outlook, 1 Finance Research

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What does the Progress in Rainfall data represent?

Rainfall data represents the share of actual rainfall received during a specific period compared to the Long Period Average (LPA) in India.
LPA is the average rainfall received over a long-term period, typically over 50 years. LPA serves as a benchmark to assess the current year's rainfall. It helps in understanding whether the rainfall is above, below, or at par with the median expectations.
The New All-India rainfall normal computed based on data of 1971-2020 for the southwest monsoon season (June-September) is 868.6mm. This replaces the earlier normal of 880.6 mm based on data of 1961-2010.
The actual as % of normal captures the variation in the rainfall.

Southwest Monsoon in India is a four month long affair from June till September, covering more than 75% of India’s annual rainfall. Kharif crops largely depend on the performance of the southwest Monsoon. Sufficient or normal rains during this season result in bountiful crops.
Agriculture being a significant part of the economy, variations in monsoon rainfall can have broader economic implications, significantly influencing agricultural productivity, commodity prices, supply chains, food security, rural income and government policies such as drought relief measures or subsidies.
The data helps in assessing whether the rainfall distribution aligns with critical stages of crop growth, future farm production, and reservoir levels.
Huge deviations in rainfall from the LPA can prompt government interventions such as drought relief measures, crop insurance schemes, and changes in agricultural policies.
Long-term trends in this data can also provide insights into climate change impacts on regional weather patterns, which is crucial for future agricultural planning.

90 to 95% of LPA is considered to be “below normal category while less than 90% is considered “deficient. Monsoon rainfall between 96-104% is considered “normal. Rainfall beyond a threshold might result in the incidence of crop damage, diminishing of nutrients and soil erosion, etc., resulting in lower agriculture production.
Adequate rainfall (around 100% of LPA) is crucial for good crop yields, especially in rain-fed areas. Conversely, significantly lower percentages can indicate drought conditions, adversely affecting crops.
A weak progress in monsoon can lead to delay in sowings, while excess monsoon can damage the crops. Drought and flood like situations both lead to poor agricultural output and consequently a weak economy.
The impact of rainfall data should be interpreted in the context of the specific crops grown in the area, seasonal and regional variations, and its distribution throughout the year.